Rapid urbanization is a constant theme across most forecasts made by management consultants over the last couple of decades. Projections are often stretched out to 2030 and beyond and there are forecasts of increasing number of mega-cities with populations of 10 million people or more. A variety of trends across work, health, education, energy and food, however, are rapidly paving the way to a very different future.
How We Got Here
In the past, several factors have favored denser and larger urban agglomerations. It was easier to create as well as find jobs in bigger cities. The centralized mass production nature of factories fueled this tendency. Large factories attracted smaller supplier businesses to be set up. This attracted increasing amount of labour specialized in that industry. The same process continued even with a transition to the service economy. Large companies dominated the landscape and bred townships around them.
Bigger and denser population made it more economical to provide better healthcare, education, electricity and other utilities as well. The supply of goods was cheaper as well with supply chains benefiting from the economies of scale. All this was an added attraction for people to migrate to bigger cities, causing a further swell.
The Problem With Mega-Cities
Of course, these high population densities and vertically growing cities came with their attendant problems. Pollution, sanitation and waste disposal are well-known problems for large cities. These are compounded by softer issues like heavy traffic, smog, social isolation. There is increasing evidence of mental health problems associated with urban life. Not to mention the inability to look up to see the stars.
Few people in large cities today would live there if it were not for employment opportunities and greater amenities.
The Reversing Trend
The move away from cities may have already started. New York City apparently saw a net 900,000 people move to other places in the U.S. between 2010 and 2016. This may not be material at this stage. However, at least on the margins, it could point to an increased tendency to move to less crowded areas*.
More fundamentally, though, there are structural changes that are facilitating such a shift. A rapidly increasing number of people are now freelancing. Fully 35% of the US workforce is believed to be freelancing as of 2016. This is projected to grow to 50% by 2020. With an increasing percentage of work being done online, these freelancers in principle are often unconstrained by proximity to their employer. Further, while tele-presence technologies are still not quite perfect, they will inexorably get better. This will further reduce the dependence of physical proximity to the workplace.
Off-grid power systems in the form of roof-top solar installations will reduce dependence on grid connectivity. AI-powered diagnostics and robotic surgery will reduce dependence on proximity to large hospitals. Education is increasingly being delivered online through MOOCs (massive open online courses) and self-learning platforms. And innovations in agriculture could bring self-sufficiency to reasonably sized clusters of people. Even social media, reviled as it is today, allows people to stay connected despite being geographically very far apart.
At this point, none of these technologies are quite refined enough to trigger a wholesale de-urbanization. But the trend is certainly in that direction. We may not go back to village life but the density of our cities will certainly reduce.
I intend to examine this idea in much more depth in the months to come. Do you live in a big city? What do you like about it? If you wanted to move to a smaller city, what would keep you from doing that? I’d love to hear your point of view.